周昆平:债务违约为何频频发生?

(原)(标)(题)(:周)(昆)(平)(:债)(务)(违)(约)(为)(何)(频)(频)(发)(生)(?
中)(新)(经)(纬)(客)(户)(端)(5月)(28日)(电)(题)(:《周)(昆)(平)(:债)(务)(违)(约)(为)(何)(频)(频)(发)(生)(?》
作)(者)(周)(昆)(平)((交)(通)(银)(行)(金)(融)(研)(究)(中)(心)(副)(总)(经)(理)(、首)(席)(研)(究)(员)(,中)(新)(经)(纬)(特)(约)(专)(家)(。主)(要)(从)(事)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(金)(融)(、银)(行)(发)(展)(战)(略)(和)(业)(务)(策)(略)(、组)(织)(架)(构)(与)(流)(程)(银)(行)(建)(设)(以)(及)(互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(等)(方)(面)(的)(研)(究)(。)
近)(期)(,债)(务)(违)(约)(事)(件)(次)(第)(爆)(发)(,仅)(5月)(以)(来)(,就)(有)(中)(安)(消)(、盛)(运)(环)(保)(、神)(雾)(环)(保)(、凯)(迪)(生)(态)(等)(多)(家)(上)(市)(公)(司)(出)(现)(债)(务)(违)(约)(,而)(盾)(安)(环)(境)(和)(江)(南)(化)(工)(的)(控)(股)(股)(东)(盾)(安)(集)(团)(450亿)(元)(债)(务)(危)(机)(更)(是)(体)(量)(惊)(人)(。其)(实)(从)(2018年)(1月)(起)(,就)(有)(大)(连)(机)(床)(集)(团)(、丹)(东)(港)(、川)(煤)(集)(团)(、中)(国)(城)(建)(等)(超)(过)(10家)(违)(约)(主)(体)(陆)(续)(曝)(出)(,违)(约)(金)(额)(同)(比)(明)(显)(增)(长)(。尽)(管)(政)(府)(和)(监)(管)(部)(门)(高)(度)(重)(视)(金)(融)(风)(险)(问)(题)(,多)(次)(强)(调)(防)(止)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(,但)(最)(近)(频)(繁)(发)(生)(的)(债)(务)(违)(约)(事)(件)(,表)(明)(防)(控)(金)(融)(风)(险)(仍)(然)(任)(重)(道)(远)(。
中)(国)(的)(债)(务)(规)(模)(、结)(构)(仍)(然)(值)(得)(关)(注)(
今)(年)(4月)(份)(,由)(国)(家)(金)(融)(与)(发)(展)(实)(验)(室)(国)(家)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(研)(究)(中)(心)(发)(布)(的)(《中)(国)(去)(杠)(杆)(进)(程)(报)(告)((2017年)(度)()》显)(示)(,2017年)(包)(括)(居)(民)(、非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(和)(政)(府)(部)(门)(的)(实)(体)(经)(济)(杠)(杆)(率)(由)(2016年)(的)(239.7%上)(升)(到)(242.1%,上)(升)(了)(2.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,这)(一)(数)(字)(略)(低)(于)(全)(球)(平)(均)(246%的)(债)(务)(杠)(杆)(率)(,也)(低)(于)(发)(达)(国)(家)(平)(均)(279%的)(杠)(杆)(率)(。从)(规)(模)(总)(量)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(实)(体)(经)(济)(部)(门)(的)(债)(务)(杠)(杆)(率)(并)(不)(高)(,但)(是)(,衡)(量)(风)(险)(程)(度)(可)(能)(还)(需)(要)(考)(量)(人)(均)(收)(入)(等)(指)(标)(,2017年)(中)(国)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)(为)(8865.99美)(元)(,世)(界)(排)(名)(第)(69,远)(低)(于)(美)(国)(、日)(本)(,甚)(至)(希)(腊)(和)(西)(班)(牙)(,应)(对)(和)(防)(控)(金)(融)(风)(险)(的)(能)(力)(相)(对)(还)(比)(较)(弱)(,因)(此)(,债)(务)(规)(模)(问)(题)(仍)(然)(值)(得)(关)(注)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,在)(债)(务)(结)(构)(上)(,2008年)(美)(国)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(后)(,为)(了)(应)(对)(可)(能)(出)(现)(的)(经)(济)(硬)(着)(陆)(的)(危)(局)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(于)(2008年)(11月)(推)(出)(了)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(内)(需)(、促)(进)(经)(济)(平)(稳)(较)(快)(增)(长)(,在)(这)(一)(背)(景)(下)(,大)(量)(企)(业)(通)(过)(大)(量)(举)(债)(维)(持)(产)(能)(和)(库)(存)(。《中)(国)(去)(杠)(杆)(进)(程)(报)(告)((2017年)(度)()》数)(据)(显)(示)(,非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(由)(2016年)(的)(158.2%回)(落)(至)(2017年)(的)(156.9%,虽)(然)(下)(降)(了)(1.3个)(百)(分)(点)(。但)(非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(部)(门)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(不)(但)(显)(著)(高)(于)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(105.9%的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,也)(显)(著)(高)(于)(发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(88.9%的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,在)(全)(球)(主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(中)(仅)(低)(于)(卢)(森)(堡)(和)(爱)(尔)(兰)(等)(离)(岸)(金)(融)(中)(心)(国)(家)(。
此)(外)(,2017年)(的)(总)(杠)(杆)(率)(是)(攀)(升)(的)(,究)(其)(原)(因)(是)(:非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(下)(降)(,居)(民)(杠)(杆)(率)(上)(升)(较)(快)(,政)(府)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(略)(有)(回)(落)(。居)(民)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(从)(2016年)(的)(44.8%上)(升)(到)(49.0%,提)(高)(了)(4.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。近)(年)(来)(,楼)(市)(的)(繁)(荣)(带)(来)(了)(居)(民)(贷)(款)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(。与)(美)(国)(和)(日)(本)(相)(比)(,我)(国)(居)(民)(杠)(杆)(率)(提)(升)(速)(度)(较)(快)(,且)(居)(民)(债)(务)(与)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(比)(值)(已)(超)(越)(两)(国)(当)(前)(的)(水)(平)(。今)(年)(4月)(9日)(,国)(家)(金)(融)(与)(发)(展)(实)(验)(室)(理)(事)(长)(李)(扬)(在)(博)(鳌)(亚)(洲)(论)(坛)(上)(称)(,2017年)(居)(民)(储)(蓄)(存)(款)(增)(长)(率)(首)(次)(为)(负)(,李)(扬)(提)(醒)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(危)(险)(的)(信)(号)(,如)(果)(再)(继)(续)(发)(展)(下)(去)(,中)(国)(居)(民)(有)(可)(能)(变)(成)(负)(债)(部)(门)(。美)(国)(2008年)(债)(务)(危)(机)(就)(是)(因)(为)(它)(的)(居)(民)(开)(始)(负)(债)(。关)(注)(部)(分)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(领)(域)(的)(债)(务)(风)(险)(。
从)(目)(前)(看)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(的)(债)(务)(主)(要)(以)(内)(部)(债)(务)(为)(主)(,2017年)(政)(府)(总)(杠)(杆)(率)(也)(只)(有)(36.2%,低)(于)(国)(际)(上)(公)(认)(的)(“马)(斯)(特)(里)(赫)(特)(条)(约)(”所)(设)(定)(的)(60%预)(警)(线)(,再)(加)(上)(居)(民)(高)(储)(蓄)(率)(、政)(府)(部)(门)(高)(净)(资)(产)(,以)(及)(央)(行)(具)(有)(多)(项)(流)(动)(性)(调)(控)(工)(具)(,中)(国)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(债)(务)(危)(机)(的)(概)(率)(不)(大)(。但)(部)(分)(领)(域)(和)(行)(业)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(违)(约)(的)(风)(险)(。从)(最)(近)(的)(债)(务)(违)(约)(来)(看)(,一)(是)(违)(约)(企)(业)(多)(为)(民)(企)(,或)(是)(“两)(高)(一)(剩)(”领)(域)(的)(国)(企)(。这)(些)(企)(业)(本)(身)(面)(临)(行)(业)(发)(展)(和)(经)(营)(之)(瓶)(颈)(,在)(经)(济)(从)(粗)(放)(式)(发)(展)(向)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(转)(型)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,伴)(随)(经)(济)(增)(速)(从)(高)(速)(转)(为)(中)(高)(速)(,加)(之)(在)(去)(产)(能)(、降)(杠)(杆)(的)(政)(策)(叠)(加)(下)(,部)(分)(企)(业)(遇)(困)(、资)(金)(周)(转)(不)(灵)(在)(所)(难)(免)(;二)(是)(随)(着)(金)(融)(监)(管)(趋)(严)(的)(持)(续)(,银)(行)(等)(金)(融)(机)(构)(流)(动)(性)(在)(收)(缩)(,前)(期)(部)(分)(不)(合)(规)(的)(非)(标)(、通)(道)(业)(务)(被)(封)(堵)(,意)(味)(着)(一)(些)(企)(业)(多)(渠)(道)(的)(融)(资)(趋)(难)(。特)(别)(是)(处)(于)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(的)(企)(业)(,信)(贷)(融)(资)(等)(再)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(获)(资)(困)(难)(或)(成)(本)(高)(企)(,风)(险)(暴)(露)(不)(足)(为)(奇)(。三)(是)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(,房)(地)(产)(商)(的)(债)(务)(压)(力)(已)(引)(起)(交)(易)(机)(构)(的)(警)(觉)(,近)(期)(地)(产)(公)(司)(债)(务)(风)(险)(若)(隐)(若)(现)(,使)(得)(地)(产)(债)(成)(交)(量)(突)(现)(放)(大)(。据)(申)(万)(宏)(源)(统)(计)(,包)(含)(公)(司)(债)(、企)(业)(债)(、中)(期)(票)(据)(及)(定)(向)(工)(具)(的)(地)(产)(产)(业)(债)(务)(,2018年)(全)(年)(到)(期)(量)(总)(计)(为)(1949亿)(元)(,其)(中)(三)(四)(季)(度)(将)(是)(期)(高)(峰)(,分)(别)(到)(期)(量)(高)(达)(932亿)(、698亿)(元)(。接)(下)(来)(2019年)(、2020年)(到)(期)(量)(将)(更)(加)(庞)(大)(,每)(年)(增)(量)(都)(在)(1000亿)(以)(上)(。地)(产)(债)(到)(期)(压)(力)(巨)(大)(,如)(果)(再)(融)(资)(仍)(旧)(受)(限)(,将)(会)(推)(升)(信)(用)(风)(险)(。
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